Health Impacts of Net Zero Housing

Developing health impact assessment models for housing retrofit policy evaluation

Role: Research Fellow
Institution: University College London, Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering
Funding: UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Duration: 2024–2025

Description

Research fellow responsible for the development and upgrading of NBM-Health (National Buildings Model - Health Module), a sophisticated Python-based bottom-up household-level health impact assessment model. This work involved conducting comprehensive evidence reviews of health outcomes associated with indoor exposures, synthesising epidemiological evidence, and translating these relationships into a quantitative tool to be used by UK Government departments for policy evaluation. The model enables the UK Government to assess the health impacts of home energy efficiency interventions and retrofit programmes across the English housing stock, supporting evidence-based policy development for the net-zero transition.

Responsible for model architecture design, Python implementation, evidence synthesis and integration, scenario analysis, stakeholder engagement with government departments, technical documentation, and dissemination through peer-reviewed publications and policy reports. The NBM-Health model quantifies health outcomes including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, mental health impacts, and mortality associated with indoor environmental exposures modified by building interventions.

Key Findings

  • Quantified health impacts of various retrofit scenarios across the English stock
  • Identified critical relationships between housing energy efficiency measures and population health outcomes
  • Demonstrated trade-offs between energy and potential health impacts of different intervention strategies
  • Provided evidence base for UK Government policy on healthy housing and net-zero transitions
  • Established framework for monetisation of health impacts in building retrofit cost-benefit analyses

Key Contributions

  • Led development and major upgrade of NBM-Health modeling framework (Python)
  • Conducted systematic evidence reviews linking indoor conditions to health outcomes
  • Integrated epidemiological evidence into quantitative health impact pathways
  • Designed and implemented scenario analysis capability for policy evaluation
  • Developed household-level bottom-up modeling approach capturing heterogeneity in English housing stock
  • Created model documentation and technical reports for UK Government departments
  • Established validation procedures and uncertainty quantification methods
  • Presented findings to government stakeholders and academic audiences
  • Co-authored government commissioned report and peer-reviewed publications

Technical Skills

  • Python programming for health impact modeling
  • Bottom-up building stock modeling
  • Epidemiological evidence synthesis and meta-analysis
  • Exposure-response relationship quantification
  • Monte Carlo simulation and uncertainty analysis
  • Policy scenario development and evaluation
  • Health economics and cost-benefit analysis
  • Data visualization and communication
  • Technical documentation and reporting
  • Stakeholder engagement and knowledge translation

Publications

  1. Symonds, P., Van Rooyen, C., Hsu, S., and Hamilton, I. (2025). Health impacts of net-zero housing in England - A report summarising the updates to the National Buildings Model Health (NBM-Health) Module. UK Government. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-impacts-of-net-zero-housing-in-england

  2. Van Rooyen, C., Banerjee, A., Nicholls, C., Malocco, D., Gresswell, E., Hamilton, I., Hsu, S., and Symonds, P. (2025). Health impacts of housing retrofits in England using the NBM-Health model. CIBSE IBPSA-England Technical Symposium 2025, UCL. https://go.cibse.org/ts-2025-cairan-van-rooyen-2

  3. Van Rooyen, C., Hsu, S., Hamilton, I., and Symonds, P. (2025). Model Documentation for: NBM Health - Valuing the Health Impacts from Bill Rebates, Energy Efficiency and Heating Measures. UK Government.